Bitcoin Panic Selling May Be Near Exhaustion, but Spot Demand Still Matters

Direct Market Read

The supplied brief points to a market where forced or emotional BTC selling may be losing intensity. Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere is cited as saying Bitcoin stayed above $62,000 even as the US-Iran conflict escalated and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz increased. In the brief's framing, that resilience suggests much of the prior weak-hand selling may already have been cleared.

That is a useful signal, but it is not the same as a full bullish confirmation. A market can stop falling because sellers are exhausted before new spot buyers arrive in force. The difference matters for traders and long-term allocators because a short squeeze, derivatives-led rebound, and spot-led accumulation can produce very different risk profiles.

Evidence Behind The Exhaustion Thesis

The first evidence point is price resilience. BTC holding above $62,000 during geopolitical stress suggests that recent negative headlines did not trigger the same degree of panic liquidation described in earlier months. That does not remove downside risk, but it does indicate that marginal sellers may have become less dominant.

The second evidence point is ETF flow. The brief states that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows last week, ending eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. For a market that had been absorbing sustained redemption pressure, a return to net inflows is a meaningful change in flow direction.

The third evidence point is spot market selling intensity. Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva is cited as referencing Glassnode data showing average daily net selling in the Bitcoin spot market fell from about 2,000 BTC in June to about 53 BTC in July. The brief describes July as one of the calmest months of 2026 so far.

What Still Needs Confirmation

The brief also gives the main counterpoint: the current Bitcoin rebound is described as being driven mainly by derivatives markets, while spot buying remains relatively weak. That limits how far the exhaustion thesis can be taken. If spot demand does not strengthen, the market may remain vulnerable to positioning resets.

A stronger confirmation would require evidence that spot buyers are not just absent sellers, but active accumulators. The supplied material does not provide order book depth, stablecoin inflow data, long-term holder behavior, funding rates, open interest levels, or realized profit and loss details. Those missing data points are important because they help separate genuine demand from temporary leverage-driven momentum.

Near-Term Catalysts

The brief identifies two near-term macro catalysts: US June CPI data and congressional testimony from Kevin Warsh. Either could affect risk appetite, rates expectations, and the way traders price Bitcoin exposure. Because BTC is often sensitive to liquidity expectations, macro surprises can matter even when crypto-native sell pressure is fading.

This makes the current setup conditional. If CPI or policy commentary supports broader risk appetite, reduced marginal BTC selling could give the market more room to stabilize. If macro data pressures risk assets, the same market could retest support even with fewer panic sellers than before.

Practical Checks For BTC Readers

Readers tracking this setup should separate three questions: whether sellers are exhausted, whether spot buyers are returning, and whether derivatives positioning is becoming crowded. The brief supports the first question more strongly than the second or third.

Useful checks include weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF flows, spot net buying or selling, BTC's ability to hold key price areas during adverse news, and whether rallies continue without excessive derivatives-driven leverage. None of these checks guarantees direction, but together they can show whether the market is improving because demand is strengthening or simply because selling pressure has faded.

Risk Disclosure And Bitget Context

This article is analysis based only on the supplied event brief. It is not financial advice, does not predict Bitcoin's next price move, and does not claim that a bottom, breakout, or trend reversal has been confirmed. BTC remains exposed to macro data, geopolitical headlines, ETF flow reversals, spot liquidity, and derivatives positioning.

For readers who actively monitor BTC markets, Bitget can be used as one venue to compare Bitcoin price action and market conditions. The supplied campaign context includes the link BITGET official destination and code 7nfg8123. Use any exchange carefully, check fees and risks directly, and make independent decisions based on your own circumstances.